New Delhi is in no hurry to sign a trade deal with Washington – even after the US slapped tariffs as high as 50% on Indian goods.
Why the calm? India’s booming home market and early signs of recovery give negotiators serious leverage.
The Numbers Tell the Story
- October exports to US: down 8.6% (better than September’s 12% plunge)
- Overall impact so far: manageable
While Japan and South Korea rushed to cut quick deals, India is holding firm for better terms.
What India Wants
- Rollback of the 25% “Russia oil” tariff → eventually a flat 15%
- In return: India ready to slash duties on 80%+ of US goods (except protected sectors like farming)
President Trump says a deal is “very close” – but Indian officials reply: “We can wait if we have to.”
India’s Three-Point Defence
- New markets: Pushing hard into Africa, Europe, UK, Australia
- Government help: Tax cuts + $5.1 billion export support package
- Industry grit: Apparel & footwear firms eating margin hits to keep US buyers happy
The China Shadow
India’s economy grew 7% last quarter, but exporters face a new headache: China’s overproduction is flooding non-US markets with ultra-cheap goods. October non-US exports fell 12.5% – worse than the US drop.
Bottom line: India is negotiating from strength, not panic – and it’s ready to play the long game.
