In an era of economic turbulence, government debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) serves as a stark barometer of fiscal health. As nations navigate inflation, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio highlights vulnerabilities and in some cases, resilience.
For 2025, projections reveal a diverse landscape where high ratios don’t always spell crisis, but they do demand scrutiny. Below, we explore the top 10 countries with the highest debt-to-GDP percentages, examining what drives their figures and the implications for stability and recovery.
This metric total public debt divided by annual GDP, measures a government’s borrowing burden. Ratios above 100% often trigger investor jitters, higher interest rates, and austerity measures. Yet, context matters: advanced economies with strong currencies can sustain higher loads than emerging markets facing currency volatility or commodity dependence. Let’s break down the list.
1. Japan: 230% – The Debt Giant That Defies Gravity
Japan’s towering 230% debt-to-GDP ratio makes it the undisputed leader, a position it’s held for decades. This stems from decades of deflationary pressures, aging demographics, and massive stimulus to combat stagnation since the 1990s “Lost Decade.”
The Bank of Japan owns much of the debt through quantitative easing, keeping borrowing costs near zero. Despite the figure, Japan’s economy hums along with low unemployment and tech innovation.
Critics worry about future tax hikes or yen depreciation, but Tokyo’s domestic debt ownership provides a buffer against panic. In 2025, expect continued fiscal experiments to spur growth without sparking inflation.
2. Sudan: 222% – War-Torn Economy on the Brink
Sudan’s 222% ratio reflects a perfect storm of conflict and collapse. The ongoing civil war since 2023 has shattered oil revenues, agriculture, and trade, ballooning borrowing needs.
External debt, much owed to China and Gulf states, compounds the crisis as sanctions and blockades choke exports. With inflation at triple digits and famine looming, Sudan’s fiscal hole deepens. International aid trickles in, but without peace, the ratio could climb further, risking total default. 2025 projections hinge on ceasefires a fragile thread for recovery.
3. Singapore: 176% – Borrowing for a Brighter Future
Singapore’s 176% – up from 150% in prior years – bucks the trend of caution. This city-state borrows strategically for infrastructure megaprojects like smart nation initiatives and green energy transitions.
Its AAA credit rating and sovereign wealth funds (over $1 trillion in assets) absorb the load effortlessly. High debt finances low taxes and robust social programs, fueling 6% GDP growth. Unlike peers, Singapore’s ratio supports long-term prosperity, not peril a masterclass in debt as investment.
4. Venezuela: 164% – Sanctions and Hyperinflation’s Legacy
Venezuela’s 164% is a hyperinflation hangover. Oil-dependent and sanctioned since 2017, the nation saw debt spiral as PDVSA revenues plummeted. Default in 2017 left $150 billion owed to creditors, with dollarization in 2021 offering faint stabilization.
Yet, 60% poverty and emigration waves strain finances. 2025 forecasts predict modest easing if oil prices hold, but political volatility could push the ratio higher. Caracas teeters between restructuring deals and deeper crisis.
5. Lebanon: 164% – A Debt Default’s Lasting Echo
Lebanon’s 164% ratio (down slightly from 2020 peaks) lingers from a 2020 default that triggered riots and bank runs. Corruption, banking collapse, and Beirut port explosion (2020) wrecked the economy. Hyperinflation hit 150%, eroding savings.
International bailouts stall amid sectarian gridlock. In 2025, IMF talks offer glimmers, but without reforms, Lebanon’s “zombie economy” risks further decay.
6. Greece: 147% – Post-Crisis Shadow
Greece’s 147% ratio, halved from 2010s highs, stems from the Eurozone debt crisis. Austerity, bailouts, and tourism rebound aid recovery, but pension burdens and high interest persist.
The EU’s NextGenerationEU fund injects billions for green tech. Greece’s 3% growth in 2025 could trim the ratio, but EU fiscal rules loom large. Athens proves debt recovery is possible – with discipline.
7. Bahrain: 143% – Oil Volatility’s Price
Bahrain’s 143% ratio (up 20% from 2020) ties to oil price swings and defense spending amid Gulf tensions. Subsidies, subsidies, and COVID borrowing swelled the load.
The kingdom’s AAA rating holds via Saudi aid, but youth unemployment (30%) adds pressure. 2025 oil forecasts suggest stabilization, but diversification into fintech and tourism is key to easing the burden.
8. Italy: 137% – Europe’s Debt Titan
Italy’s 137% – Europe’s highest – reflects chronic deficits, aging population, and post-COVID stimulus. EU funds (NextGenerationEU) inject €200 billion for digital and green shifts. 1.5% growth in 2025 could shave 5 points, but political flux and high yields risk spirals. Rome balances austerity with reform a tightrope walk for the Eurozone’s third-largest economy.
9. Maldives: 132% – Tourism’s Double-Edged Sword
The Maldives’ 132% ratio exploded from COVID tourism collapse, then ballooned with infrastructure debt for resorts and bridges.
China loans fund the boom, but sea-level rise threatens. 10% growth in 2025 from rebounding visitors could help, but debt sustainability hinges on diversifying beyond beaches.
10. Mozambique: 131% – Conflict and Commodity Trap
Mozambique’s 131% ratio (up 40% since 2020) ties to gas project delays, cyclones, and northern insurgency.
Hidden debt scandal (2021) exposed $2 billion fraud. IMF support aids restructuring, but poverty (46%) and food insecurity strain budgets. 2025 gas exports could ease the load, but peace is prerequisite.
Debt’s Global Warning
High ratios warn of fiscal cliffs but smart management turns risk to resilience. As 2025 unfolds, these nations’ choices will shape economic futures for billions.
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