Chad’s upcoming presidential election marks a pivotal moment after three years of military rule, with General Mahamat Idriss Déby favored to solidify his family’s decades-long grip on power. However, Succès Masra, a former opposition leader turned prime minister, is drawing significant crowds, raising questions about the election’s integrity and the future of Chad’s political landscape.
Déby’s Bid to Extend Family Rule
Mahamat Idriss Déby, appointed head of state by the military following his father’s death, is the frontrunner in a vote marred by allegations of repression. The Déby dynasty, led by his father Idriss Déby Itno for 30 years, has maintained control through force and political maneuvering. Campaign posters in N’Djamena proclaim a first-round knockout for Déby, echoing his father’s past electoral slogans. The junta’s violent suppression of opposition, including a deadly crackdown on The Transformers—Masra’s party—that killed dozens and sent hundreds to a desert penal colony, has stifled dissent. The death of Yaya Dillo, a key rival and Déby’s cousin, in an army assault further diminished opposition voices, leaving only lesser-known or regime-friendly candidates.
Succès Masra’s Ambiguous Role
Succès Masra, once a fierce critic of the Déby regime, has emerged as a complex figure after accepting the role of prime minister. His candidacy has sparked speculation: some, like disqualified opposition candidate Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, view it as a democratic facade to legitimize Déby’s inevitable victory, with Masra securing a future role. Others, including Kelma Manatouma, a political science professor, suggest Masra’s growing popularity could push him to challenge Déby genuinely, potentially forcing a run-off. Masra’s claim that he will win and keep a place for Déby adds to the ambiguity, drawing comparisons to unexpected electoral upsets like Senegal’s recent presidential race.
Allegations of Electoral Manipulation
Opposition groups, now largely in exile, have called for a boycott, labeling the election a mechanism to entrench a Déby dynasty. Remadji Hoinathy, a Chad expert, argues that Déby’s record of chaotic governance—marked by economic and social decline—makes a fair first-round victory unlikely without ballot stuffing. Ladiba Gondeu, a sociology professor, warns that blatant fraud could reignite violence akin to past crackdowns, posing risks to Chad’s stability. The disqualification of 10 candidates, including Saleh, by the Constitutional Council further fuels skepticism about the vote’s fairness.
Regional and International Stakes
Chad remains a key ally in the fight against Sahel jihadists, hosting 1,000 French troops despite regional shifts away from French influence. The election’s outcome will shape Chad’s role in regional security and its democratic trajectory, with fears that continued repression could destabilize the nation of 18 million.
