In early February 2022, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned the French Senate that the Vienna talks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were at a critical stage, stating, “It is not a question of weeks, it is a question of days.”
The talks, involving Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States (indirectly), resumed in November 2021 to restore the deal, which offered Iran sanctions relief for nuclear restrictions.
Le Drian emphasized that failure to reach an agreement could trigger a “major crisis,” as Iran continued to escalate its nuclear activities, including enriching uranium to 60% purity, far beyond the JCPOA’s 3.67% cap.
Iran’s Position and Demands
Iran’s top negotiator, Ali Bagheri, expressed optimism on Twitter (now X) in February 2022, stating, “We are closer than ever to an agreement,” but urged negotiating partners to be “realistic” and learn from the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under President Donald Trump, which reimposed crippling sanctions costing Iran over $160 billion in oil revenue from 2012 to 2016.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in an interview with the Financial Times, demanded a political statement from the U.S. Congress to guarantee commitment to any new deal, citing public distrust in Iran after the 2018 exit.
He argued, “Public opinion in Iran cannot accept as a guarantee the words of a head of state,” reflecting skepticism rooted in the economic devastation from U.S. sanctions.
Context of the JCPOA
Signed on July 14, 2015, in Vienna, the JCPOA aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program—restricting centrifuge numbers, capping uranium enrichment at 3.67%, and repurposing facilities like Fordow and Arak for civilian use—while allowing enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections.
In return, Iran received relief from UN, EU, and U.S. nuclear-related sanctions. The deal was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015), but Trump’s withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions in May 2018 led Iran to breach limits starting in 2019, including amassing a stockpile 12 times the permitted amount by 2021 and enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels.
Sticking Points and Progress
Le Drian noted a “deal within grasp” with consensus among the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, UK, U.S., plus Germany) and the EU, but stressed Iran’s need for “political decisions” to avoid a crisis. Iran’s breaches, including reduced IAEA access and advanced centrifuge use, raised concerns, with the IAEA estimating in 2022 that Iran’s breakout time to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon had dropped to near zero.
Negotiations in Vienna from April 2021 to March 2022 outlined a potential agreement, but Iran rejected compromise proposals in March and August 2022, stalling progress.
The E3 (UK, France, Germany) and U.S. insisted Iran’s nuclear advances lacked civilian justification, while Iran linked its violations to inadequate sanctions relief.
Broader Implications
The talks occurred amid global challenges, including the Covid-19 pandemic’s 400 million cases and regional tensions, such as the 2021 Tokyo Olympics and Ghana’s vaccination mandates for football fans.
Iran’s economy, battered by sanctions, saw one-third of its population fall into poverty, fueling protests in 2022 after Mahsa Amini’s death.
The election of ultraconservative President Ebrahim Raisi in June 2021 hardened Iran’s stance, though 2024’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled openness to a new deal.
Posts on X in 2025 reflected ongoing tensions, with Iran warning of exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if the E3 triggered snapback sanctions, which expire in October 2025.
Critical Moment
Le Drian’s warning underscored the urgency, with Iran’s nuclear advancements—stockpiling enough enriched uranium for potential nuclear devices—raising stakes.
The E3 retained sanctions beyond the JCPOA’s Transition Day (October 18, 2023) due to Iran’s non-compliance, and the U.S. under Biden sought a return to the deal, but regional conflicts, including the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, complicated diplomacy.
A failure to agree could escalate tensions, potentially leading to military action or a nuclear-armed Iran, while a restored JCPOA could stabilize the region, though domestic skepticism in Iran and U.S. political divisions remain hurdles.
