The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 3.4% for 2025, a 0.4 percentage point increase from its April 2025 projection of 3.0%. For 2026, the IMF projects growth at 3.2%, up 0.5 points from 2.7%.
These updates, announced in the July 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reflect optimism driven by improved oil production and strong services sector performance.
Global and Regional Context
The IMF also raised its global growth forecast to 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, up by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from April 2025 estimates.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, slightly higher than the previous 3.8% and 4.2%.
The IMF noted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth will remain stable in 2025 before accelerating in 2026, supported by structural reforms and improved export performance.
Expert Insights
Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, commented,
“The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics data points. I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services.”
However, he cautioned that the modest single-digit growth rate indicates cautious optimism, as it remains insufficient to address Nigeria’s poverty challenges.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite the positive outlook, the IMF warned of downside risks, including trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and commodity price volatility, which could impact oil-reliant economies like Nigeria.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria’s concerns about the industrial sector’s declining GDP share underscore the need for structural reforms to boost manufacturing and ensure sustainable growth.
