Global trade is on track to rebound sharply in 2021, with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasting a total value of $6.6 trillion in goods and services for the second quarter (Q2) of 2021.
This marks a 31% increase from the lowest point in 2020 and a 3% rise compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
According to UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update released on Wednesday, trade in goods has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels as of Q1 2021, while services continue to trail behind.
“It took just four quarters after the pandemic-induced recession for global trade to bounce back to pre-recession levels,” the report states. “By Q1 2021, trade in goods was already higher than Q4 2019 figures.”
Uneven Recovery Across Regions and Sectors
While the global picture shows signs of a strong rebound, UNCTAD cautions that recovery remains uneven—especially among developing countries. East Asia has led the charge, benefiting from early pandemic containment and strong demand for COVID-related goods.
In contrast, regions like the Middle East, South Asia, Africa, and countries with economies in transition still have export levels below the global average.
The energy sector continues to lag behind, and international trade in transport equipment remains significantly below its pre-pandemic average, further highlighting the imbalance in global recovery.
Trade Forecast for 2021: East Asia and Developed Economies Lead
The report forecasts overall trade growth of about 16% for 2021 compared to the lowest point in 2020—19% growth in goods and 8% in services. This growth is expected to remain concentrated in East Asia and developed economies.
WTO Reports Decline in Global Trade Costs
In a related update, the World Trade Organization (WTO) disclosed earlier in May that global trade costs dropped by 15% between 2000 and 2018. The data also shows:
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Trade costs are lowest for manufactured goods
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Higher for agricultural products
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Highest for services
This cost structure continues to influence how different sectors and countries recover in the post-pandemic global market.
