The Central Bank of Nigeria has unveiled its 2026 economic projections in a report called “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty,” released Tuesday.
The bank sees external reserves climbing to $51.04 billion by year-end, up from $45.45 billion expected in late 2025.
Key Drivers Behind the Reserve Build-Up
Several factors will ease pressure on foreign exchange:
- Dangote Refinery ramping up to 700,000 barrels daily, cutting fuel import needs
- Higher crude oil output and prices
- Steady diaspora remittances and fresh sovereign bond sales
Inflation Expected to Cool Significantly
Headline inflation should drop from around 21.26% in 2025 to 12.94% in 2026, and further to 10.75% by 2027.
Reasons include:
- Cheaper petrol from greater market competition
- Better food supply thanks to improved farming security and policies
- Lingering effects of past rate increases
Cautious Notes on Risks
The CBN flagged potential hurdles:
- Sharp fall in global oil prices hurting revenue
- Rising bad loans stressing banks
- Higher pre-election spending squeezing budgets
Despite these, the bank pledges flexible tools to maintain price control while supporting growth.
The report also notes the new Nigeria Tax Act 2025 should lift non-oil income, though low compliance remains a worry.
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