Nigeria’s economic landscape saw a significant milestone at the close of 2025. According to the latest Foreign Trade Statistics Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, the nation achieved a trade surplus of ₦1.71 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
While the surplus remains a positive indicator of the country’s trade balance, the report highlights a cooling of export activity. This moderation was primarily driven by a drop in crude oil shipments, which continue to serve as the backbone of Nigeria’s international trade revenue.
Analyzing Total Merchandise Trade Performance
The total value of Nigeria’s merchandise trade in Q4 2025 reached ₦36.21 trillion. While substantial, this figure reflects a slight contraction when compared to previous performance benchmarks. Specifically, total trade saw a 1.07% decline from the ₦36.60 trillion recorded during the same period in 2024.
More notably, the fourth-quarter figures represent an 8.94% drop from the ₦39.77 trillion recorded in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025. This downward trend suggests a period of consolidation or reduced demand as the global economy navigated various pressures toward the end of the year.
Export Trends: The Crude Oil Factor
Exports remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s trade profile, accounting for 52.36% of total trade. The value of exports for the quarter stood at ₦18.96 trillion. However, these numbers reveal a double-digit decrease in export momentum:
- Year-on-Year: A 5.25% decrease compared to the ₦20.01 trillion recorded in Q4 2024.
- Quarter-on-Quarter: A sharp 16.88% decrease compared to the ₦22.81 trillion achieved in Q3 2025.
The Dominance and Decline of Crude Oil
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s most critical export commodity, but its performance in the final quarter of 2025 was noticeably weaker. Crude oil exports were valued at ₦9.70 trillion, representing 51.17% of the nation’s total export value.
The NBS data shows that crude oil earnings fell significantly during this period:
- Annual Drop: The value plummeted by 29.60% from the ₦13.78 trillion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- Short-term Drop: Compared to the ₦12.81 trillion earned in Q3 2025, crude exports declined by 24.24%.
The Rise of Diversification?
While crude oil struggled, non-crude oil exports showed resilience. These exports stood at ₦9.26 trillion, making up 48.83% of the total export pie. Within this category, non-oil products—excluding all petroleum-related derivatives—accounted for ₦3.15 trillion, or roughly 16.59% of total exports. This indicates a slow but steady push toward economic diversification beyond traditional energy sectors.
Import Patterns: China Maintains its Lead
In contrast to the declining export figures, Nigeria’s appetite for foreign goods grew in the final months of 2025. Total imports rose to ₦17.25 trillion in Q4. This marks a 3.98% increase from the ₦16.59 trillion recorded a year earlier and a 1.73% increase from the previous quarter.
China solidified its position as Nigeria’s primary import partner. Other major contributors to Nigeria’s import volume included:
- The United States
- The Netherlands
- India
- Brazil
What Nigeria is Buying
The nature of Nigeria’s imports highlights the country’s reliance on foreign energy and industrial goods. Major commodities entering the country included:
- Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol): Remains a top import despite local refining efforts.
- Durum Wheat: A staple for the nation’s food processing industry.
- Used Vehicles: Particularly those with diesel or semi-diesel engines.
- Cane Sugar: Imported specifically for local refining processes.
Global Destinations for Nigerian Goods
Nigeria’s export reach remains global, with European and Asian markets serving as the primary consumers of Nigerian energy and raw materials. During the fourth quarter, the top five destinations for Nigerian exports were:
- The Netherlands
- India
- Spain
- France
- Canada
Beyond crude oil, these nations imported significant quantities of natural gas, kerosene-type jet fuel, and urea, which is increasingly becoming a valuable agricultural export for Nigeria.
Economic Implications: A Fragile Balance
The ₦1.71 trillion trade surplus is a testament to Nigeria’s ability to maintain a positive balance of payments throughout 2025. However, the reliance on crude oil earnings makes the surplus vulnerable to global market fluctuations and domestic production challenges.
The decline in crude revenue at the end of the year, coupled with the rising cost of imports fueled by a petrol price that hit ₦1,300 per liter in some regions presents a complex challenge for the Nigerian government. Businesses are currently bracing for an inflation surge, and the “tumultuous trajectory” of the Naira continues to weigh on the cost of doing business across West Africa.
Conclusion: Looking Ahead to 2026
Nigeria’s trade statistics for Q4 2025 paint a picture of a nation at a crossroads. While the trade surplus provides a necessary buffer for the national economy, the contraction in total trade and the heavy drop in oil revenue are warning signs that cannot be ignored.
As the NBS notes, the moderation in the fourth quarter was directly linked to the drop in crude earnings. For Nigeria to sustain its surplus and foster economic stability in 2026, the focus must remain on boosting non-oil exports and reducing the heavy reliance on imported refined fuels and food staples.
READ ALSO: Tunisia Eyes Tourism Boost With $1B Airport Expansion
