Despite the significant entry of domestic refining capacity, Nigeria remained heavily dependent on foreign fuel in 2025. According to the latest factsheet from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), imported petrol accounted for 62.47% of the nation’s total consumption.
Total national petrol consumption reached approximately 18.97 billion litres for the year. While domestic refineries—led almost exclusively by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery—contributed 7.54 billion litres, oil marketing companies still imported 11.85 billion litres to meet demand.
2025 Fuel Supply Breakdown
| Supply Source | Volume (Billion Litres) | Market Share (%) |
| Imported (Foreign) | 11.85 | 62.47% |
| Domestic (Local) | 7.54 | 37.53% |
| Total Consumption | 18.97 | 100% |
The “Dangote Factor” and Local Production Trends
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery served as the backbone of domestic supply in 2025, providing nearly all locally refined Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Although the facility supplied an average of 17 million to 32 million litres per day, it fell roughly 4.7% short of its annual 7.2 billion litre benchmark, finishing the year at 7.54 billion litres due to an uneven ramp-up.
Specifically, the market saw a dramatic shift in December 2025. Local supply surged to 32 million litres per day, marking the highest performance of the year and narrowing the gap between imports and local production.
Monthly Consumption Volatility
National demand fluctuated sharply throughout the year, influenced by seasonal needs and pricing:
- Peak Demand: December recorded the highest consumption at 1.97 billion litres.
- Lowest Demand: September saw a dip to 1.31 billion litres.
- Import Spike: In November, imports surged to 1.56 billion litres, equivalent to nearly 98% of that month’s total consumption.
Market Realities: Why Imports Remain Necessary
Industry experts suggest that while domestic refining is a milestone, “import parity” remains the market’s anchor. Professor Wumi Iledare, a renowned energy economist, notes that the ability to import acts as a critical risk-management tool.
“The credible threat of imports remains the market anchor. Importation also continues to serve as a tool for stock security, demand surges, and refinery operational risks.” — Prof. Wumi Iledare
Furthermore, Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of petroleumprice.ng, highlights that while local refining grew from 5% in 2022 to nearly 40% in 2025, a higher threshold is needed for true stability. He argues that domestic refining must reach 70% of national consumption to effectively stabilize the Naira and create significant job growth.
2026 Outlook: Policy Shifts and Tariffs
The landscape is expected to change significantly in the first quarter of 2026. President Bola Tinubu has approved a 15% import tariff on petrol. This policy is designed to:
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Disincentivize foreign fuel reliance.
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Protect local refining investments.
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Encourage higher crude oil allocation to domestic facilities.
However, challenges remain regarding crude oil availability and logistics. If the Dangote refinery gains increased access to crude (rising toward 40% allocation), industry observers expect import volumes to finally see a sustained decline.
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