For the first time in months, millions of Nigerian households have received concrete economic relief. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell sharply to 15.15% in December 2025, a significant drop from 17.33% in November.
This decline is not just a statistical adjustment; it reflects a tangible reduction in the cost of living, driven primarily by a rare deflation in food prices.
The Great Food Price Crash
The most impactful data point for the average citizen is the collapse in food inflation. The rate plummeted to 10.84% year-on-year, a massive retreat from the crippling 39.84% recorded in December 2024.
Crucially, on a month-on-month basis, food inflation entered negative territory (-0.36%). This means that for the first time in a long cycle, the actual market prices of staple foods decreased between November and December.
According to the NBS, the items driving this relief include:
- Staples: Garri, beans, millet, and wheat grain.
- Vegetables: Tomatoes, onions, and grounded pepper.
- Proteins: Eggs.
Understanding the Numbers: The Methodology Shift
While the price drops are real, the dramatic scale of the headline reduction (down from nearly 35% a year ago) is partially due to a technical update.
The NBS has “rebased” the Consumer Price Index (CPI), setting the 2024 average as the new benchmark (Base Year = 100). Previously, the bureau warned that without this adjustment, December figures might have shown an “artificial spike.” This recalibration aligns Nigeria’s data with international best practices, smoothing out statistical noise to reveal the true economic trend.
Regional Analysis: Where is Life Cheapest?
The impact of this cooling inflation was not felt evenly across the federation.
- Most Expensive States: Residents in Abia (19.03%), Ogun (18.80%), and Katsina (18.66%) are still facing the highest price pressures.
- Cheapest States: The lowest inflation rates were recorded in Sokoto (8.61%), Plateau (9.05%), and Kaduna (10.38%).
Specifically for food, Yobe remains the hardest place to shop, recording the highest food inflation at 15.25%, while Akwa Ibom enjoyed the lowest at just 4.34%.
Core Inflation Remains Sticky
Despite the good news on food, other sectors remain stubborn. Core inflation—which strips out volatile farm produce and energy costs—stood at 18.63%.
While this is a decrease from previous highs, it indicates that prices for services, healthcare, and transportation are not falling as fast as food prices. Urban inflation dropped to 14.85%, while rural areas saw a slightly sharper decline to 14.56%.
What This Means for 2026
This report sets a positive tone for the new year. If the trend of falling food prices continues, it could signal the end of the “cost of living crisis” phase that defined 2024 and 2025. However, economists will be watching closely to see if the reduction in core inflation can catch up to the dramatic drop in food costs.
__________________________________________________
President Tinubu Leads Nation in Honoring Heroes on Armed Forces
