A disturbing pattern has emerged in Nigeria. On November 1, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a fiery ultimatum, threatening military intervention to stop what he termed a “Christian genocide.” Since that declaration, the West African nation has witnessed a terrifying spike in terrorist violence.
In just three weeks, attacks have tripled. From school abductions in the northwest to church raids in the north-central region, the intensity of the bloodshed has startled security observers. The timing has sparked a fierce national debate:
Is Nigeria facing a genuine collapse requiring foreign salvation, or is this a manufactured crisis designed to pave the way for American troops?
The Ultimatum: “Fast and Vicious”
The current tension began with a controversial post from the White House. President Trump designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” regarding religious freedom and threatened to halt over $1 billion in annual aid.
Going further, he ordered the Pentagon to prepare plans for “fast, vicious” strikes against terrorist networks. The narrative was clear: the Nigerian government had failed to protect its citizens, specifically Christians, and the U.S. was ready to step in.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration pushed back immediately, asserting Nigeria’s sovereignty and rejecting the premise of state-sanctioned persecution. Yet, the violence that followed has complicated Abuja’s stance.
A Bloody November
Since the threat was issued, the security situation has spiraled. Data indicates that violent incidents jumped significantly from October to November, with attackers seemingly emboldened.
Key incidents in the last three weeks include:
- Kebbi State: Gunmen stormed a secondary school, abducting 25 girls and killing the Vice Principal who attempted to intervene.
- Kwara State: A raid on a church in Eruku left three worshippers dead and the pastor kidnapped—an attack in a region usually spared such violence.
-
Borno State: ISWAP operatives executed a high-ranking army general in a brazen show of force.
-
Yobe State: A deadly ambush on a military convoy resulted in the deaths of 12 soldiers.
The Conspiracy: “Why Now?”
The correlation between Washington’s rhetoric and the sudden escalation on the ground has fueled deep suspicion. Online, hashtags suggesting a set-up are trending, with many Nigerians questioning the convenient timing of the attacks.
Skeptics argue that the sudden surge in violence particularly in areas previously considered bandit territory rather than religious battlegrounds—feels orchestrated. The theory suggests that “bad actors” may be staging attacks to validate Trump’s narrative and justify a foreign intervention, similar to historical precursors seen in Libya or Iraq.
“It feels like someone is lighting matches just to prove the house is on fire,” noted one prominent social media activist.
The Counter-View: A Perfect Storm
However, security experts dismiss the idea of a Hollywood-style script. They argue that the violence is the result of long-standing systemic failures boiling over.
Factors such as high unemployment, climate stress, and the proliferation of weapons from the unstable Sahel region have created a powder keg. Analysts suggest that terror groups are merely capitalizing on the political tension, ramping up attacks to project strength while the military is distracted by diplomatic rows.
Sovereignty vs. Survival
Nigeria now stands at a dangerous crossroads. If the escalation is genuine, U.S. military support—including intelligence and drone strikes—could offer a tactical advantage against groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP.
However, many fear the “blowback” of Western intervention. Framing the conflict as a religious war risks radicalizing the north and alienating moderate Muslims. As the death toll rises, the Nigerian public is divided: desperate for security, yet wary of “saviors” who may bring more war than peace.
Tech Giants Borrow for AI: Bond Market Flooded with $90 Billion
