The Carlyle Group unveiled its September 2025 US economic indicators on October 7, amid a government shutdown delaying official reports.
The firm projected employers added just 17,000 jobs last month, well under the anticipated 54,000 from the delayed nonfarm payrolls.
Mixed Economic Signals
Carlyle’s metrics show GDP expanding at a 2.7% annual rate in September. Energy prices fell 3.8%, while services excluding housing rose 3.3%. This paints a picture of growth despite hiring slowdowns.
Employment-Economy Gap
Jason Thomas, Carlyle’s global research head, highlighted the divide.
“Payroll trends suggest recession risks, yet consumption and business investment thrive,” he said.
The AI surge drives spending, creating an unusual split from broader health indicators.
Surge in Private Insights
With the shutdown in its seventh day, investors seek non-official sources. Bigdata.com reported a 175% traffic spike since October 1.
Founder Armando Gonzalez noted, “When government data pauses, alternatives fill the gap for real-time views.”
Carlyle’s Data Sources
The estimates draw from Carlyle’s 277 portfolio companies, employing nearly 730,000, and 694 real estate holdings.
Thomas pointed to AI’s outsized role, boosting demand for semiconductors like X-rays. “This tech shift is independent of other trends,” he added.
Broader Hiring Weakness
Other private reports echo the trend. Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted September planned hires at a 2009 low, reminiscent of financial crisis fallout.
These signals underscore labor market pressures amid economic resilience.
Implications for Markets
The shutdown, unresolved, stalls federal releases, heightening reliance on firm-specific analytics.
Carlyle’s findings suggest caution on jobs but optimism for AI-fueled growth, influencing investor strategies.
