The death of Yaya Dillo, a prominent opposition leader and president of the Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF), on February 28, 2024, has cast a pall over Chad’s upcoming elections, intensifying fears of political repression and impunity. Dillo, considered the main rival to transitional President Mahamat Idriss Déby in the presidential election initially scheduled for May 6, 2024, was killed during an assault by security forces on his party’s headquarters in N’Djamena. His death, labeled an “assassination” by the PSF, has deepened Chad’s political crisis, with the European Union and Human Rights Watch calling for an international investigation. Prime Minister Succès Masra agreed to a probe during a March 2024 visit to Paris, promising an “international-style investigation” to identify responsibilities, but doubts persist about its transparency, as noted by RFI.
Circumstances of Dillo’s Death
Yaya Dillo, a cousin of Mahamat Déby and a leading figure from the Zaghawa ethnic group, was killed amid conflicting accounts. The government claimed Dillo led an attack on the National Security Agency (ANSE) on February 27, 2024, following the arrest of PSF’s National Finance Secretary, Abakar Torabi, for allegedly plotting to assassinate the Supreme Court president. The PSF denied these allegations, asserting Dillo was targeted in a deliberate attack on their headquarters. Reuters reported, based on an investigation, that Dillo likely died from a close-range bullet to the head, fueling assassination claims. Human Rights Watch noted that photos showed a single bullet wound, raising suspicions of an execution. The PSF headquarters was later demolished, and 26 relatives, including three minors, were detained in Koro Toro prison until December 2024, despite a July acquittal, per Amnesty International.
A Culture of Impunity
Analysts like Roland Marchal of RFI argue that Dillo’s killing fits a historical pattern of unpunished political violence in Chad, citing similar incidents in 1993, 2008, and the 2022 protest crackdown, where a report on state violence remains unpublished. Jean-Baptiste Placca described Chad’s “depressing culture of death,” while opposition politician Max Kemkoye called it an “explosive cocktail,” warning that opposition candidates face mortal risks. The lack of progress in Masra’s promised investigation, as noted by Amnesty International in December 2024, has deepened distrust. Human Rights Watch emphasized that the absence of accountability for Dillo’s death, one year later, marks a “missed opportunity to stem Chad’s descent toward political violence.”
Electoral and Political Context
Mahamat Déby, who assumed power in a 2021 coup following his father Idriss Déby Itno’s death, extended the transitional period by two years, delaying elections from 2022 to May 2024. He announced his candidacy three days after Dillo’s death, raising concerns about electoral fairness. The elections, marred by violence—including celebratory gunfire killing at least 11 after Déby’s victory—saw international monitors barred, per Human Rights Watch. Déby won with 61.3% of the vote, while Masra, his former prime minister and main challenger, garnered 18.53% and disputed the results. Masra’s subsequent arrest in May 2025 and a 20-year sentence in August 2025 for alleged incitement further shrank the opposition space, as reported by Africa.com.
International Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes
The EU and African Union expressed concern but have been criticized for prioritizing Chad’s stability due to its role as a Western ally against terrorism in the Sahel, hosting French troops amid regional junta-led shifts. Marchal noted the EU’s “double standards” in remaining silent on Chad’s electoral issues while condemning other African regimes, undermining its credibility. The dissolution of the G5 Sahel force, following Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso’s pivot to Russia, has heightened Chad’s strategic importance, complicating international pressure for accountability.
Outlook for 2025 Elections
As Chad approaches its December 2024 parliamentary elections, with results still unfolding as of August 21, 2025, Dillo’s death and the ongoing crackdown on opposition figures like Masra fuel fears of a rigged process. The PSF’s detention of members and Déby’s consolidation of power suggest a challenging path to democratic restoration. X posts reflect public unease, with sentiments like, “Yaya Dillo’s killing shows Chad’s elections are a sham” (@LamanaElhadj). Without a transparent investigation or electoral reforms, as demanded by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, Chad risks further instability, threatening its fragile democratic transition.
