Following the July 26, 2023, coup in Niger that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has described military intervention as “the very last option on the table” but stressed the need to prepare for it. The bloc, chaired by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, convened a meeting of its defense chiefs in Abuja from August 2 to 4, 2023, to address the crisis. “We have to prepare for [that] eventuality,” said Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS’s commissioner for political affairs, peace, and security, emphasizing a preference for diplomacy but readiness for action if necessary.
Diplomatic Efforts and Sanctions
ECOWAS dispatched a delegation, led by former Nigerian leader Abdulsalami Abubakar, to negotiate with the junta, headed by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who declared himself Niger’s leader after detaining Bazoum. The bloc imposed severe trade and financial sanctions on July 30, including Nigeria cutting 70% of Niger’s electricity supply, a critical blow to one of the world’s poorest nations. ECOWAS gave the coup leaders a one-week ultimatum, expiring August 6, to reinstate Bazoum or face potential force, signaling a hardline stance against the region’s wave of coups since 2020.
Regional Tensions and Opposition
The coup has deepened divisions within West Africa. Junta-led Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, also suspended from ECOWAS, warned that military intervention in Niger would be a “declaration of war” against them. A Nigerien delegation, including General Salifou Mody, visited Mali’s capital, Bamako, on August 2, signaling potential alignment with these regimes. This opposition complicates ECOWAS’s plans, as Mali and Burkina Faso have pledged military support for Niger’s junta, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.
Context of the Crisis
Niger’s coup, the fourth since its independence from France in 1960, has destabilized a key Western ally in the Sahel, critical for countering jihadist insurgencies. Bazoum’s 2021 election marked Niger’s first peaceful power transition, making his ousting a setback for democratic progress. ECOWAS’s firm response reflects Tinubu’s resolve to curb coups, following similar takeovers in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. However, the bloc’s past interventions, like in The Gambia in 2017, suggest military action could be complex, potentially requiring support from Nigeria’s 230,000-strong army or Western allies like France.
Challenges Ahead
As the August 6 deadline looms, ECOWAS faces a delicate balance. Diplomacy remains the priority, but the junta’s defiance and regional alliances with Mali and Burkina Faso heighten the risk of escalation. Sanctions, including the electricity cut, are already straining Niger’s economy, while protests in Niamey, some waving Russian flags, indicate shifting geopolitical loyalties. The outcome of the Abuja meeting and ongoing negotiations will determine whether ECOWAS can restore Bazoum or if Niger’s crisis will spiral into broader instability.
