Zankawa Sanusi Kris, a Ghanaian PhD candidate in International Trade at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, warned that the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, could severely impact Africa’s food security, per. Kris highlighted Russia’s role as a leading global exporter of fertilizer, noting, “Russia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of fertilizer, this war has the potential to dislodge some of Africa’s countries’ food systems,” particularly those reliant on agriculture for food and economic stability, per. The conflict’s disruption of fertilizer supplies, combined with sanctions on Russia, threatens agricultural productivity across the continent, per.
Impact on Wheat, Corn, and Commodity Prices
Kris emphasized that Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of global wheat exports and 15% of corn exports, per. Africa’s heavy reliance on wheat imports, especially in countries like Egypt, Ghana, and Nigeria, makes them vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and price spikes, per. “The sanctions on Russia will most likely lead to supply chain disruptions driving up commodities prices, and in turn inflation,” Kris stated, pointing to a record 80% surge in crude oil prices since 2014 following Russia’s invasion, per. While southern African countries consuming locally grown corn may face less impact, global price increases will raise costs for other goods and services, per.
Energy Price Surges and Economic Strain
The war’s effect on energy markets, particularly diesel—a critical input for agriculture, manufacturing, and freight transportation—exacerbates Africa’s economic challenges, per. Kris noted that petroleum imports constituted 17-20% of total imports in Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, and Ghana in 2019, per. “The demand for specific energy products… is highly correlated to the economic cycle,” he said, highlighting how rising fuel prices strain trade balances and current accounts, per. The suspension of Russia’s natural gas exports to Western Europe, due to sanctions, opens opportunities for African oil exporters like Nigeria, which has agreements to supply liquefied natural gas via the Trans-Saharan pipeline, per.
Financial Market Tightening and SWIFT Sanctions
Kris warned that potential sanctions excluding Russia from the SWIFT network could tighten African financial markets, complicating trade with Russia and access to international financing, per. This could exacerbate economic pressures, as African countries already face high import bills amid a depreciating cedi in Ghana (projected to hit GHS8 against the dollar by March 16, 2022) and rising inflation, per. The war’s ripple effects, including a 40.4% inflation rate in Ghana by October 2022, deepen the cost-of-living crisis, per.
Recommendations for Resilience
To mitigate these challenges, Kris urged African governments to capitalize on commodity price increases by strengthening fiscal policies and diversifying investments through Stabilization Funds or Sovereign Wealth Funds, per. “African countries [should] rake in some gains from the shortages and the price increase,” he advised, emphasizing the need to cushion against future economic shocks, per. These measures could help stabilize economies heavily reliant on agriculture, which employs 52% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s workforce, per 2021 World Bank data, and protect food security gains made over decades.
Broader Context and Supporting Evidence
The war’s impact aligns with broader analyses, such as a 2022 Human Rights Watch report noting that disruptions in wheat, fertilizer, and vegetable oil supplies from Russia and Ukraine have worsened food insecurity in Africa, per. Egypt, importing 80% of its wheat from these countries, and Ghana, reliant on imported wheat, face significant risks, per. The World Bank reported a 48% increase in global wheat prices and a doubling of fertilizer prices by April 2022, corroborating Kris’s concerns, per. Initiatives like USAID’s $4.2 million co-investments in Ghanaian agricultural firms in 2022 aim to bolster local production, but immediate challenges persist.
