On February 1, 2021, 75 Libyan delegates convened in Geneva under the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), facilitated by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), to select a temporary prime minister and a three-member presidency council.
The interim leadership, to be chosen by February 5, 2021, from a list of 45 candidates, is tasked with guiding Libya to national elections scheduled for December 24, 2021, and reunifying state institutions fractured by a decade of civil war.
Acting UN envoy Stephanie Williams emphasized the importance of honoring this election commitment, stating, “This decision was greeted with overwhelming approval by your compatriots, and it is a commitment that must be honored at all costs”
Libya’s Conflict Background
Since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted and killed dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been divided between the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the eastern-based House of Representatives (HoR), backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar.
A fragile October 2020 ceasefire, agreed in Geneva, has largely held despite Haftar’s threats to resume fighting.
The LPDF, launched in November 2020 in Tunisia, aims to create a unified governance framework to restore sovereignty and democratic legitimacy, following a roadmap endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2510 (2020).
Candidate Selection Process
The LPDF’s 75 delegates, representing Libya’s diverse social and political spectrum, approved a list of 21 candidates for prime minister and 24 for the presidency council, including three women. Notable candidates include:
- Prime Minister: Fathi Bashagha (GNA interior minister), Ahmad Meitig (GNA deputy prime minister).
- Presidency Council: Salahuddin al-Namroush (GNA defense minister), Khalid al-Mishri (head of Tripoli’s High Council of State), Aguila Saleh (HoR speaker), and Mohammed al-Bargathi (Libya’s ambassador to Jordan).
The selection process, finalized on January 18, 2021, involves electoral colleges and a 60% initial vote threshold, with a second round requiring 50% plus one. Candidates presented themselves via video link, aiming to foster national reconciliation over power-sharing, as Williams noted: “This project is not about dividing the cake.”
Outcome and Leadership
On February 5, 2021, the LPDF selected Abdul Hamid Dabaiba as interim prime minister and Mohammad Younes Menfi as president of the presidency council, with Musa Al-Koni and Abdullah Hussein Al-Lafi as council members. This new executive is responsible for forming a government, to be approved by the HoR, to lead Libya to elections and implement the LPDF’s roadmap. However, concerns persist about Dabaiba’s ties to Libya’s economic status quo and allegations of vote-buying, which he denies.
Challenges with Foreign Interference
Despite a UN deadline of January 23, 2021, for foreign forces to leave Libya, approximately 20,000 troops and mercenaries, including Russian Wagner Group operatives and Turkish forces, remain. Satellite imagery showed Russian mercenaries fortifying positions near Sirte, indicating non-compliance with the UN-brokered ceasefire. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for their withdrawal, citing violations of the arms embargo under Resolution 1973. Foreign interference, particularly from Ankara and Moscow, threatens the fragile peace process.
Broader Implications
The LPDF’s success hinges on the interim leadership’s ability to unify rival factions and prepare for elections. Public support for the December 24, 2021, elections is strong, with 76% of 1,000 Libyans polled in January 2021 backing the date. However, challenges remain, including the HoR’s potential to obstruct legitimacy efforts, as warned by analysts, and ongoing human rights concerns, such as reported abuses by both GNA and Haftar-aligned forces. The interim government must navigate these issues to restore stability and sovereignty, with the international community, led by UNSMIL, urging adherence to the roadmap.
